CARRIAGE AND INSURANCE
19 FEB 2022
Shipping and delays at port of destination are ongoing due to the pandemic; add a possible war in ‘Europe’ and you have the ideal situation fuelling rate hikes in both freight and insurance. In the Gulf War (1991) insurance rates of up to 6 percent of goods value were reported.Result ? Prices are passed on to the consumers allowing inflation to take hold.Buyer must allow for increased freight, delays and demurrage expenses, and should consider, as a matter of business that goods will not be ‘delivered on time.’ Supplier may need to also assist end buyer with some of these added expenses and not rely on the interpretation of incoterms only, such rules which didn’t account for a Pandemic. FTNX contracts apply incoterms 2020 where the term ‘added variants’ apply. In other words , the PCT applies incoterms on the offer, and the sections being reinforced; which are further addressed on the relevant parts of the contract.
NEW PROCEDURE BEING CURRENTLY TESTED
19 FEB 2022
New FTNX crude oil and fuel purchasing procedures have been successfully trialled from 2021 which will now finalise entry in current in-house publications and defined our new publication COSI as crude and fuel sales will dramatically fall in usage shift as will prices rise greatly after 2030. To lock in long terms contract of supply in the next few years, will ensure end buyers a firm price basis into an uncertain future. New procedures are in short form is prescribed. Supply is secure. Offer signed. Contract is signed immediately there after . A FTNX In-house revocable DLC format is served 3 days after the contract is returned as signed. All parties are legally bound. As per the contract, certain events must take place before the supplier is able to present their DLC to their bank for collection, which a becomes irrevocable at such a time. Any attempt to collect on the DLC prior to such event being cleared, triggers automatic revocation of the IH DLC. The contract of supply is cancelled if supplier breaks any of its conditions with the end buyer.The supplier does not have the same option as the PCT is the one bearing a precarious trading basis. ( A larger more powerful entity , taking advantage of a weaker entity.) Contract model and IH DLC model will be found in the FTNX library March 2022.When the primary trading option re: as per ITSI/FTNX doctrine, fails to secure supply, this second option can now be effectively offered, by those who have attained good trading procedures or practises.
23 FEB 2022
Current delays at port of unloading especially in parts Europe and Asia are averaging at 28 days. The PCT should assist the end buyer with matters of demurrage expense by offering to cover 50% of such expenses. A large ship held at demurrage could attract up to US$ 4000 per day in expenses. Once a deal is done, the PCT rebates 50% of demurrage expense weekly as advised by the end buyer at such a time, which is made a part of their own operational expense.
CRUDE OIL PRICE
23 FEB 2022
Crude oil prices will rise and rise; there is no going back to the ‘ good old days‘ until there is too much stock and not enough users. This means inflation tied to goods transported by “crude oil” will also keep on climbing upwards. This effect won’t happen for another 14 years or more, regardless what’ rhetoric is offered about climate change. “There is plenty of business to be had with crude oil and fuels.” We we need to deal in future fixed prices and fix contracts accordingly .PCT should not be looking for discount unless a 3 year revolving contract or longer is evident. The PCT has to also formulate premiums instead of discounts. The price oil crude oil will exceed US$ 160.00 per BBL before years end.
SUEZ CROSSING FEES
24 FEB 2022
Some countries are entitled to 40% up to 70% rebate once the transit fees are first paid. IN general however ( contract dictates this aspect) a 100,000 MT VLCC crossing fee will need to apply an added US$4.60 per MT (2022) to the price of goods to cover such a transit. From initial Pilot at around $600.00 with a whole lot of other charges to follow (Tug, Ministry fee , Port authority fees, etc,etc.) before the actual crossing fee of around US$ 3.52 per MT is applied. The fee is payable by the end buyer, to the supplier as a debit, (ie. FOB, CIF, etc.,etc but not at DAP) after presenting the invoice carrying Suez canal crossing fees is the proper application. If a rebate is apparent, the supplier receives the rebate as a credit which is recorded on the sellers Invoice, and is discounted against the gross payable to arrive at the net payment once all other debits and credits have been applied.
27 FEB 2022
Idiotic traders are trying to crawl back into the market place with unworkable nonsensical processes. FTNX however cuts them down quickly. As an example of T/T payment application; Lets enact as much to show why a seller or supplier cannot entertain such stupid procedures even at EXW by people who ought to know better. We cannot enter into ‘on the SPOT’ (EXW or Gate prices) deliveries which do attract T/T payment. So already no T/T payment is allowed. Private traders are not end end users, and must trade on the future platform - that is on a future delivery date of 3 months or less but above 30 days. This is how long such Crude oil/fuel contracts take to close. End buyer is in Spain wanting to trial 20,000 MT shipment of i.e Cement. He will pay by T/T. The Supplier ( in possession of goods) or seller ( like FTNX) needs to secure the required documents prior, at huge expense. The seller then also needs make an Bill of Exchange (BOE) to cover such huge delivery expenses while holding am active SLC applying specific conditions, supporting the contract.. If the end buyer does not take delivery and decides not to pay by T/T at the last minute, the seller is able to recoup such expenses and time wasted via the SLC. So T/T payment have to be guaranteed with the support of payment by T/T or SWIFT or a combination of both. When T/T payment is made the SLC is revoked. This is the only way to accept a payment for commodities via T/T when a DLC is not offered. No new supplier in the world who has a half a brain will accept anything less from a new client located is another far away country. But even here there is a problem. Some suppliers ask for a 30% deposit before commencing the order under T/T payment. The deposit is paid and unlike prior, suddenly all these problems and excuses occur, holding the buyer to perform “beyond the scope of the signed contract’ or the buyer will face losing the deposit. The supplier could insist on a higher price and even change matters of a signed contract under the threat of buyer losing the deposit, on the first occasion, that the end buyer indicates that it will not entertain such demands. By cancelling the contract the end buyer legally is at fault , the seller/supplier keeps the deposit, for doing nothing . No Deposits and no T/T payment means that a safe trading aspect is in place. A UCP endorsed DLC dictates who does what and is supervised by the bank issuing the credit. If this is the situation FOR A SUPPLIER, then it applies much more so applies when a PCT/Seller is apparent. A trial shipment is also a way for a buyer to circumvent the seller to buy a larger quantities from the newly discovered /exposed supplier. T/T payment can also create the situation where the supplier fraudulently pockets the money for himself, and not for his company. I have seen such events over a long period of time. Our procedures must apply, because they are the safest legally defined procedures available to supplier and end buyer today. At the very least any credit worthy end buyer wanting to buy much wanted products is able to open a pre-advised DLC. When other excuses are apparent the deal is trashed. We know of traders in Houston America, Sth America and the EU who have a 2 cent company established, to give the impression they are a large supplier of crude oil.These crooks do nothing all days looking for fools who have money.Every now an then they score a deposit with no deal eventuating. There is also a large number of traders also doing as much by offering financial instruments such as MTN’s, where professional people a have been duped in paying upfront Hundreds of thousands of dollars in ‘fees’ never to see the deal eventuate. if you cannot get an offer from a supplier, or if the supplier is not disclosed, no deal is possible. Trading on offers from ill informed intermediaries is where all these scams originate from.
SUPPLIER END BUYERS CONFIDENTIALITY
28 FEB 2022
A supplier is the entity in possession of export ready goods. An intermediate trader such as FTNX (PCT) is a highly informed buyer of secured goods, as secured form the the supplier. A PCT is also an ITS ( and International Trade Specialist). It could take years before a supplier offers a seasoned trader and PCT the implicit ’right to buy goods’ on offer in a legally defined manner. Once a supplier serves FTNX an offer, and its ‘acceptable,’ the PCT may now acts as the seller of such goods, for selling to a sourced end buyer paying and for taking possession of export ready goods. The Informed ITS must be able to buy goods and sell goods legally, safely and correctly. The banks used on the transaction supervise the deal as it relates to payment. Such banks may also use intermediate banks (corresponding banks) for this purpose ; following the SWIFT process. Even if there were no international rules of trade, our procedures would still be applied, as such procedures are loaded with security features which protect the seller/buyer, supplier and later eventually end buyers. The effect of snaring a supply contract means the supplier will be paid, the end buyer will get goods ‘as ordered’ in good conditions and the PCT will make a profit on the buy and sell transaction. This now means that the PCT cannot disclose who the end buyer is to its supplier, nor who the supplier is, to the end buyer. This undisclosed information is what makes the WHOLE PROSPECT OF CLOSING A LUCRATIVE DEAL POSSIBLE. This information is valuable to a end buyer looking to immediately buy a product on offer, which may take many months to secure otherwise.The PCT has worked hard to secure a supplier and therefore such a PCT cannot a consider offers from ill informed intermediaries, agents and brokers.It can only offer goods it has or is about to purchase from a supplier in possession of goods being offered. We bear consequences of our obligations to the supplier. The end buyer is only transacting with FTNX (PCT). we give a guarantee to our supplier and as such expect to recoup such form the end buyers. the final sell price is often way below what an end buyer could secure, by dealing with a supplier directly. In this light, we do not provides details of our supplier, until financial instruments are secured. We don’t disclose our supplier because we have done the work to secure as much. A end buyer will have not compunction to go directly to the supplier and close on a deal on the work we have done, if we disclose the supplier early. Because we only trade using UCP 600 endorsed documentary letter of credit and only use ICC Incoterms delivery modes, the deal we engage in with a supplier or end buyer is highly protected from fraud. Everyone involved in a trade deal performs or nobody get anything, not loses money, is the only final possible outcome-there is nothing in-between.The banks involved supervise the closing financial side of the deal only, which means a whole lot of document have to be produced before a deal heads for closing and payments are able to be collected. There is no other wise to close such deal legally and safely . if it take 3 months to close a deal to first delivery, then nobody gets paid until first delivery has ‘cleanly’ cleared. because of the length of time it takes to close on a deal, it would take only days or weeks to find out if the PCT is acting correctly legally or fraudulently. A bank will stop all business if fraud is detected in where the irrevocable status on any credit can be made revocable. Accordingly such deal cannot be enacted upon unless the PCT is also a highly informed ITS. Over 90% of intermediaries and associated traders are not informed and have no idea what they are doing A end buyer can buy goods from FTNX or they can secure their own products- they cannot have it both way as the nature of business is unforgiving and literally unworkable for ill informed traders.This is a business.FTNX treats all such considerations accordingly.
TIME FOR WAR, TIME FOR BUSINESS
1 MAR 2022: USCT ADVICE
If this war ends bad, so will all business as we know it- will cease. But! if within coming days/weeks/months Ukraine is saved, Reo Bars, Steel beams, Copper/ steel pipes , Aluminium ingots and plenty of EU 42.5 Grade Cement will be needed, just for starters.FTNX has just completed securing contract of supply for such product. We recommend USCT agents to do the same; as the price of these goods will skyrocket if Ukraine survives this war. This is the time when USCT members should be sourcing and securing contracts of the supply , which soon could become highly wanted products. It’s no good trying to secure such products , weeks later, as many competitors will be in the same market place, at such a time.
RUSSIAN CRUDE AND USA
2 MAR 2022: USCT ADVICE
2 VLCC cargo ships of Russian crude is to be delivered to Huston USA in March 2022 ( on route) , for local consumption ( not for reselling), as secured by private traders. I hope the USA Government intervenes and confiscates the goods and ships when they arrive (USA compensate the trader, but not pay Russia). I would expect no less. Germany has cut Russian Gas, France has seized a Russian cargo ship. It’s now showtime for America. USA cannot be paying for Russian Crude oil, while at the same time creating economic hardship via other means. Stop all Russian ocean going ships, until Russia (Putin) retreats from Ukraine.ONE, Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM, and MSC have already suspended some bookings in the region. The suspensions have raised concerns about supply chain disruption due to an escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict.
TYPICAL COSI ENQUIRIES
9 MAR 2022
TYPICAL REPLY to the many traders waiting for COSI to be released.
Thank you for your enquiry re: COSI.The book is ready alas, Putin has created changes to the world trading and banking system. I had to add more important matters to the base doctrine. To make the study as simple as possible, has become complicated.The release of COSI is delayed until Putin is removed and Ukraine is stabilised.While this war rages, business in crude oil for intermediaries to trade in is literally zero. First we had the Coronavirus now there is war in Ukraine with a mentally sick Putin. To release 7 years of work now is a mistake. Watch www.ftnx.net When it's released I will declare it on such a site ( Maybe June) Thank you .
Note: There is currently no effective Crude oil /fuel business for professional intermediaries since mid January 2022 as prices skyrocket and supply becomes scarce- then came the Ukraine invasion and Russian embargo.The USA and the rest of the world will now need to top up the missing 10% crude oil supplied by Russia to the USA domestic market alone. With climate change rhetoric alone, we had already predicted the rise of Crude oil prices with the FTNX declaring US$ 100 dollar per barrel price basis weeks before anyone else. We also predicted in 2013 as written on this website that a ‘war’ in 2021, would defeat matters of climate change and crude oil usage. FTNX is offering a semi fixed price of US$ 154.00 per BBL future supply for large contract of supply. The highest quantities we are able to secure in 2022 is 280,000 MBBL, which is a quantity that nobody is interested to buy. We cannot get a contract of supply for 3 years or more. End buyers are many, alas worthy quantities of supply is not. PCT’s should concentrate on securing other commodities other than Crude oil or fuels for the next 6 months or more, as the market place we have been testing intently, is full of scam deals and false supply. Even if Putin did not invade Ukraine, the price of crude oil was heading only one way - Up. We have been in constant contact with Russian traders who are fully aware of what Putin has done but cannot fully articulate as much, their thoughts via email, for fear of retribution. The price of sweet crude oil will reach US$ 200 per BBL within weeks - or months, as this is the price FTNX will offer, for stored crude oil, if the situation does not change by the 15 March 2022.
12 MAR 2020
There is plenty of business for single shipments of ULSD & LS D2 at 80,0000 - 120,000 MT that the PCT should be sourcing that could be readily sold to smaller countries in Africa and other southern ports, while we await for crude oil market place to settle, once PUTIN is ousted or is ‘ suddenly’ made to disappear. As for the media and spot prices? Such speculative prices are not worth deep considerations and are subject the sensational claims being made by the media and journalists who do nothing all day but look for stories to create from fresh air . For instance today the term “nuclear or biological warfare“ is being touted only by the media who don’t have nothing to write about and simply create news at will. I woke up this morning and turned on the News channel, struggling to find up to date information the war in Ukraine. I looked on my iphone headlines only to find more BS stories where I need to subscribe and pay a monthly fee to read.To read what ? More creative BS. Being an “armchair general’ “ ( like many of us are) we can only assess information which is genuinely being served as being relevant, current and up to date. Trade has been disrupted because of the Coronavirus ; which may be effecting Russian soldier abilities to perform. Trade has also been affected with this war. The Ukrainian army has to strike a city in Russia where the Russian army has amassed, with a small number of bombs , to show the Russian people what Putin has created and forcing the Russian army to defend its own country. Such a small attack would hit the Russian government hard. This one act may end Putin and may knock some senses into the many ‘fat bellied generals’ that a ‘big mistake’ has been made. For now, subject to the idea no nuclear war will eventuate, (with old unreliable poorly maintained bombs that may even explode on launching) business and trade will increase as will prices. Forget about the speculative market place, get a firm fixed price for a wanted product, and sell such goods accordingly at a fixed price per single VLBC shipments. For revolving shipments , make the contract revolving monthly at increments of 4 months (4x4x4). The need for observing FTNX trade rules and application of such is now more imperative than ever. One effective aspect that has come from this war for all to see, is that the Russian army is and has always been an inferior force. If NATO was involved, the Russian army wouldn’t stand a chance add USA to the fray, could create an new democratic regime. One further mistake where a rogue Russian unit intentionally bombs Poland in an effort to stop this war would be enough to stop this war.
BUSINESS WITH CHINA
14 MAR 2022
The Government of China is assisting Putin; is becoming more obvious. Why? Because China is always looking for opportunities. The history of China’s success is built upon the crushed bones of its citizens; not dissimilar to the way Russia controls its citizens in every aspect of life. The personal wealth of leaders in both countries relied for decades on the prosperous nature of western democracies; and now ‘ with bellies full’ these two countries are looking to call the shots for the rest of the world. “The Morlocks want eat their Eloi cousins.” Anyone doing business in China, be advised- Chinese buyers must pay for goods using a Confirmed credit, as confirmed from another top ranked corresponding bank located in a country practising western principles of Democracy. The DLC must be established serving a deferred payment, meaning that once delivery takes place at CFR or, CIP, CIF, the Chinese based sellers can collect on the credit i.e 45 days later. This position must remain in place until China shows the world fully, its true intent. The time for bluffing is over. China has been feeding the west with inferior rubbish for decades, it’s time for China to be appreciative of this fact. It had grasped the USA dollar with both hands and now it thinks the Rouble has more value. For China or anyone else, to ever trust Russia again, will not happen for decades. Such leaders have become wealthy from opportunities created in the west and by grinding the bones of their citizens to the ground. This is how China and Russia run their countries. Nato and USA must be prepared to counter a nuclear event - now, because to live in a world where Russia and or China rules supreme without the support of the rule of law- is the worse aspect of two evils.The one fact above all else is that in a nuclear confrontation, everyone loses regardless who eventually ‘wins’ the battle. Nato will not press the nuclear button first, but they will so the moment Russia does; in this light NATO must invade Ukraine, wipe up Putin’s ‘dads army’ in a few days, all the way back to the steps of the Kremlin with the USA watching on the side lines. USA does not want to reveal its ‘secret weapon’ taking decades to complete; not to the Russia or the China–unless it must. This will allow China to ‘take a breath’ and reassess where it loyalties are and if it wants to prosper with USA by its side or grovel with a the likes of Putin and a dishonourable Kremlin. Does Xi want to continue to conduct business and prosper with the west or does it want to go into bed with Putin and catch fleas. It’s a simple question? Take on Putin, and get rid of him and his poverty stricken poorly applied ‘dads’ army and threats therein, once and for all. This is the time to do do. Even if Russia calls on peace talks, its a two face tactic declaring to all ‘don’t mess with us’ while it crawls in the undergrowth creating havoc. Every time Putin calls for peace talks it simply means he’s looking for time to regroup his army. Whatever happens Putin is also a war criminal and must pay for what he has done. China better take a good look at it new friend. It formally needs to take sides. Playing mind games is for kids. As for the security council. Having Putin on board, taking advantage again of the wests ‘rule of law’ to suit its own agenda, does make the council look like a very weak and spent force not worth the money its cost to maintain such. Expel Putin, even it it means doing so as per the ‘Russian way of doing things’ and then invade Ukraine or their behalf, with an overwhelming force that Putin could not envisage. If he goes for the nuclear option, then Nato will do the same. Putin knows exactly how the west will react if he pushes one nuclear button - therefore he won’t push any such button and just like all bullies ; a slap in the face is usually enough to get such bullies packing.
RUSSIAN CRUDE AND FUEL
15 MAR 2022
FTNX has had a number of Russian refineries contact us offering supply of refined fuel.The type of refineries we have been trying to do business with for decades- contacted FTNX. So Russian suppliers knows very well of our existence. They approach us in desperation. My response was similar to the one made by the Ukrainian solder who survived on snake island after being blasted by a Russian destroyer. No business with Russia is possible until Russia gets a new leader. Putin Must Go (PMG). How simple is that for everyone including China to comprehend ( who must be laughing at Putin’s army). As for sending Russia to the international court for downing MH17 over Ukraine. What a joke. As if the Kremlin gives a shit ‘ that it must be held accountable.’ Then we have Elon musk challenging Putin to a fight in where he’ll only use his left hand ; mocking Putin of his martial arts skills and his training at Spetsnaz special forces training school ( where I am told he was caught in a sexual compromising position with another male trainee). I personally, would use a different body part often called the “third leg” as a baton, to beat and humiliate Putin into submission - after all, lets not forget Putin is a ‘small stumpy male species closely related to the baboon.’ ( I don’t like using the term ‘man’ when talking about Putin) “Wanna fight, forget about martial arts, lets try a real fighting style made for real men; such as boxing.” But Putin wont fight because he is a bully and liar with a big mouth, even in the face of directing a embarrassing third world military regime. “ he is conducting war form a home base position and has already lost the battle. Big mouth bullies like Putin will ALWAYS threaten first, then run away when a superior force is present, preferring to sneak up like a rat, when striking his opponent, such as pregnant mothers, children and the elderly. Putin is a war criminal. Any Russian soldier who upon the direction of their principal intentionally kills civilians are also criminals - by law, and must bear and share the consequences of their actions. Ukraine must hold stead, and ‘steer the ship away from the surf and spray’ until Putins makes a critical mistake is made, one that forces him to capitulate ( Naturally he’ll call it “peace talks.”) He has done too much damage for Ukraine to now accept peace talks. Forget about peace; that road has been crossed. SWISS bank needs to freeze a bank accounts of Putin and his parliamentary members, worth over 300 billions dollars, stolen from the people of Russia . Ukraine soldiers will be served sophisticated weapons by the west; as such If Nato will not go to Putin, let the Ukrainian soldiers beat Putin outright.This one act would infuriate and humiliate Putin so much and destroy his vision of a reunited impoverished USSR ( restore to the former glory of what?). He wants to sit on the top seat of an empire built upon fear, death and tragedy.
21 MAR 2022
“By the claims made by Nato and USA in fact Putin could take over the whole world including China by simply declaring that it would use nuclear bombs if anyone interferes.This is flawed logic being applied.” The cretin Putin fears death intently. He sits at the end of a long fortified table, has ‘pretty Russian gals’ around him, he wears a double bullet proof vest and he has security everywhere he goes . Putin rarely ventures outside. The last thing Putin would ever do is fire nuclear missiles that land in ( implied ) Russian territory. As an arm chair general, I would have all bordering countries transmit on the Russian T.V ( and radio) channels what Putin has been up to, even for a few hours - to the Russian people. Head of Nato would announce during the transmission that if the war does not end in 24 hours, Russia will be facing battle with Nato in both Ukraine and Russia. I would transmit pictures of horror, and make excuses ( treat liars with the truth) to enter Ukraine by citing “Putin is using chemical weapons” or “ Putin is killing children” ought to do it. This would stir the Russian people as well, not against just Putin, but against those politicians in the Kremlin who are not mad, and who need to be named and shamed. I would then get Nato to enter Ukraine swiftly, and fire on Russian troops with missiles on the Russian side of the border with Ukraine, and work the war backwards towards Kyiv while the Nato ground forces moves in form their respective country. Nato must be ready for such an invasion now. What would Putin do ? Nothing ! As sanctions bite, against a weakened and stressed Russian army, to have Nato take the initiative is a very strong move. What Putin will not do is irradiate his own country with nuclear fallout. “Putin may be mad, but he is not a stupid peasant” As such Nato can take Putin’s army easily while the USA observes on the side line. To keep your enemies close, now makes sense. No stalemate allowed - we are talking about checkmate. This war has created new business opportunities while damaging standing business to do with the commodity trade. “ We have had many inquiries for goods we cannot secure.” We cannot rely on long revolving shipments hence getting supply to fill orders for large single shipments is now a worthy aspect, as large profits due to escalating prices can be assured. It’s a fully blown buyers market. The PCT must focus of securing large single shipments. Forget about Crude oil deals, they are too complex for most PCT’s to handle at this time, due to unstable pricing mechanisms. Grains, metals and fertilisers now lead the way. Confirmed DLC must apply . Strict procedure must prevail.
FTNX PURCHASE INTENT
23 MAR 2022
The Chinese Government has stated that it “ supports peace.” Albeit the definition of ‘peace’ as prescribed under Chinese rule. Japan on the other hand , made it very clear that it does not support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. There is no BS with Japan. As for India, it’s ‘tippy toeing’ around the subject matter, while the lure of discounted Russian crude oil is on offer. In 2021 FTNX has had 222 Chinese based suppliers being served under our recommendations to its agents. As from February 2021, FTNX has not serviced a singled trade inquiry from China, relegating such inquiries to the ‘wait and see’ folder. FTNX will wait ‘and and see’ on which side of the fence China prefers. It will ‘wait and see’ from which plate it wishes to eat from. China must declare its intent to the world ‘which side of history’ they prefer as it relates to the invasion and murder of civilians in Ukraine and if it thinks that invading the sovereignty of another country is acceptable-without the BS. As for Australia “we could not even defend ourselves from an attack of killer sparrows ” let alone a foreign power. Australia must introduce inexpensive ‘ supervised gun firing and training centres’ in where as already observed in Ukraine, trained citizens have proven to be effective deterrent to a superior force. Australian citizens and patriots MUST have the ability to defend its country at a moments notice should a foreign power starts to ‘lick its lips’ at Australia. We need to import military equipment , guns, land based missiles and tanks from USA as a matter of urgency NOW that can be used immediately when a threat is evident. Our huge hostile land mass dictates that submarines and aircraft taking decades to delivery are useless to us today, and are outdated by the time they are delivered. Australian government needs to wake up to the idea that the rule of law serves no purposes when a belligerent country decides that it’s above such laws.
23 MAR 2022
The SWIFT financial system is what PCT’s use serving support to payments being made, or being paid via the use of documentary credits (DLC’s) when the DLC is endorsed as UCP 600 ruling financial instrument.This is an important aspect, because there are also ‘DLC’ which are supported by the issuing bank ( or institution) as per their own rules and policy. Let me make it simple and clear to understand. The PCT cannot trade with countries currently banned them from the SWIFT Network, Also note; smaller banks that are not banned, from the SWIFT system, but a who are unable to qualify in joining the network, may still trade on the features offered under a UCP 600 Ruling DLC in conjunction with the relevant Incoterms used. Here the smaller bank will often have an intermediary bank to call upon (called the corresponding bank) who is hooked up to the SWIFT system. The intermediary bank, sights all the documents on behalf of the smaller bank and may even honour the credit on behalf of the smaller bank . Naturally the use of a corresponding bank, means more fees including the transfer fee; which must be paid first before any document will be examined. large ships attract large transfer fees often measured in thousands of dollars., on a large value (FCL, VLBC,VLCC etc.) shipment. Insurance cover is also a complimenting issue especially with vessels operating in the black sea where war coverage on a 50,000 MT crude carrier attracting an added insurance ‘war’ premium of up to US$ 6.00 per MT, has been reported. It’s going to be busy for commodity traders in the future and the rules must still apply, because the remaining 99% of countries in the world are still trading and have become dependant more so than any time in history on the integrity of the SWIFT Network. The PCT must not conduct business with Sanctioned countries and must make sure documents being presented at sight are correctly prescribed. As for the China factor; trade continues with China, except payments for imports must be paid by a confirmed credit until China makes it position clear in regards to Russian Government atrocities. President Xi Jinping is not Putin! China more than anyone else knows the important role it plays in world trade and stability of the financial network. When this idiotically inspired and embarrassing Russian war is over, a lot of real end buyers will enter the market place, along with an equal number of fraudulent deals and scam artists. Their are ‘big dollars’ to be made in the near future, it’s not easy to do so - but its simple to apply, once you understand the basics about complex international business dealings. PCT must apply due diligence intently and must not be tempted with false dealings and promises. While Putin hides his family in a nuclear underground city in Altai Republic, lets hope those ‘old grey men’ within the Kremlin ( The “Spiviot’s” are mostly Politicians / Generals who weld the real power to get rid of Putin, and who are not afraid to do so- One politician even owns a Bank) who have Putin in their hand - squash the pest soon. Business will follow quickly their after. As for Putin being present at the planned G 20 meeting that is being promoted by the media, to be held in Indonesia later this year- Is this a joke? He won’t be there - He will not leave the fortress he has created for himself and his family. ( For whatever reason; if he’s still alive at such a time)
CRUDE OIL AND THE INTERMEDIARY
Short version BETA: COSI: 1 APRIL 2022
This article should clear up current nonsense and offers for crude oil circulating today. Our website FTNX has tested many crude oil /fuel deals over the years. In recent turbulent times ( Covid /War) FTNX has offered generous premiums as well Even then the issue of supply remains problematic. A ship afloat full of crude oil, may have been sold many times before it reaches the final end buyer. We are unable to trade on such a ‘back to back ‘ platform. 30 years ago intermediaries and traders were trading heavily on many fake Venezuelan Crude oil as well as Bonny light Crude and Iraqi Crude oil offers. The occasional supply of CO were also drifting around as offered by a Saudi Prince. Many fake deals existed back then as they do today , except the ‘usual’ source of suspect supply in the last 15 years has been overtaken by the supply of real and fake Russian crude oil (RCO). Buyer (A) secure a supply of Russian blended crude oil ( RBCO) at lets say US$ 30 dollar per MT Under spot market value . (A) sells to (B), where (B) sells it to (C) and so on and so forth until the final end buyer takes possession. Everyone in the string made money of the buy /resell ( flipping of a contract) application.These traders are financially strong, but weak in knowledge, unlike a PCT who are strong on strict procedures and rules.Various methods of payment were also exercised along the string again the kind of methods that a professional intermediary cannot apply. We cannot apply such ‘back to back transactions, even though such transaction are very apparent, because we need to use the added security features attached with the use of a UCP endorsed DLC. Some of these features explicitly states under UCP rules that transshipment cannot be used, a shipowners BOL must be secured and no back to back transaction allowed as the DLC cannot be used as security on a back to back deal. ITSI and SADI explained such matters intently. A supplier gets paid when goods are delivered. Freight is earned by the carrier when ‘delivery’ has been concluded. the entity known as ‘World-scale’ (flat rates) , dictates freight rates applying to carriers, if such WS rates are used on the contract. If not used price of carriage as agreed upon applies. World-scale rates are published by the ” New Worldwide Tanker Nominal Freight Scale”, published by the World-scale Association Limited ( based in London) and the World-scale Association (USA), which is managed by a group of leading tanker brokers in London and New York City.These disclosed brokers acting for a disclosed trading house or stockbrokers ‘are not in the same boat’ as professional intermediaries (PCT).WS uses averages to arrive at the freight rate charges for carrying such Crude oil based on a (about) 24,000 Kilometres round trip. WS conditions if used once applied to the contract also dictates that the goods must be discharged POL within 24 hours of berthing and the vessel must be able to sustain a pumping rate at its manifold of 188 PSI or better.If a carrier is unable to discharge its load within 24 hours it is required to surrender its berth to the next ship, in where it waits at demurrage until space is available to discharge the remaining crude/fuel. For short coastal trips local currency is used, but on long trips payment in US dollars are strictly applied. Freight is often payable under charter party contract in part, in advance upon loading, or via the presentation of the BOL ( and other documents ) often based on the value / amount on the ‘in-taken’ ( rarely on out-turn) weight of crude oil or fuel.Freight is actually payable “ as earned “ when the goods are discharged at destination port once the carrier has ‘earned ‘ it. Freight marked ‘pre paid’ apply more so for dry goods than CO deals- but may also be sought where cargo or crude is shipped under a UCP endorsed bill of lading, as the end buyers of crude paying by a DLC will require a “freight paid” bill of lading. In days gone past , Crude oil suppliers had far higher bargaining power to make demands in not accepting to ‘pre paid’ freight rates. Todays it’s the same, because supply is difficult to secure. In fact the supplier does not actually pay for freight. The CO supplier secures freight and if required , may need to pre-pay such freight when chartering a ship in where the pre paid aspect ware often sought mostly from suppliers of dry goods. Today however , with sanctions and and restriction ‘all over the place, the PCT must insist on using only a DLC for payment of crude oil and has the option to pre pay freight ( full in part) to satisfy the terms of the DLC in where the option for freight collect is also allowed to be exercised by the PCT in where CIF delivery term is replaced with the FOB &Freight ( FOB&F) aspect with is defined as a ’incoterms’ variable delivery mode. Carriers don’t apply incoterms as we (PCT) do and have their or own (many) rules administered by ‘associations’ to abide by. We are not Wall Street brokers shuffling paper deals all day. We trade in real commodities. We don’t trade in product offered via string deals but are able to deal with a string where stepping back procedure are applied. We buy crude oil /fuel from a supplier and sell to an end buyer, end user or another ‘buyer’ (only allowed by experienced PCT) who is able to satisfy payment terms required by the PCT. if a buyer is apparent, the BOL is “ not marked as endorsed to the buyer” is the main difference otherwise all other matters of strict safe trades must always apply. We are not brokers we are buyers and sellers of the products we personally secure. If the PCT secures crude oil it must be offered with a fixed discount otherwise by-pass attempting to secure CO to favour securing refined products as refined products have a very different basis in where cost of labour allows for refined product to be sold to the pCT ( for large quantities) at discount, and therefore allowing the PCT to resell at a profit, while still offering a reduced discount. Forget about Russian crude oil; the problems that the PCT will encounter are simply too great to consider such crude oil. These issues and others ensure that the PCT cannot trade in ‘back to back’ transactions. We cannot deal in TT cash payments. If CO is secured, the DLC allows for partial payment therefore if a supplier needs to book a vessel, the PCT is able to offer a deposit to cover pre paid freight, which is earned and collected once supporting documents are produced. The supplier then declares the value of the partial payment on its invoice as a credit to favour the PCT when CIF is apparent The PCT does the same to the end buyer. If the very experienced trader ( PCT) is going to charter the vessel (allowed once trading aspect in COSI has been studied and practised ) bank details will need to be served to show RWA ( once the DLC is in the account of the PCT) No advance payment is made on FOB&F which is the commonest aspect. If a PCT does not have good trading experience as per ITSI/SADI, accepting ONLY FOB for crude oil and fuels is still the preferred less risker aspect. We are not ‘stock’ brokers.
CHINA AND RUSIA
1 APRIL 2022
RUSSIA AND CHINA should formally announce their alliance. They can form a union and conduct business amongst themselves along with any anyone else who thinks the Russian / Chinese way of living is worth fighting for. China has gravely offended the world with its co-operation with Russia, and China knows it . No matter what happens, China has lost respect forever, and will be treated as a dishonourable and belligerent country. Just like Russia ,China makes ‘rubbish’ and all its leaders are billionaires (they are crooks). It sells such rubbish to the rest of the world. It has feed from the westerns plate for too long. As for Taiwan, as if China could readily take Taiwan back. Any attack on Taiwan would be met with fierce resistance and would create both human and financial loses for China. They also have a formidable force on their door step, who do not make rubbish-Japan. This is what Putin an Xi do not comprehend. They don’t understand that the sovereignty of a small state is as powerful if not more powerful than the sovereignty of a nation. Xi and Putin like to control the ‘whole country’ and gives no consideration to any ‘state’ within a country or region. It is in their nature to think this way , because they don’t trust the people they are meant to represent. Russia does not even have a titles system as it pertains to property. Taiwan is a sovereign state, regardless if it was once a part of China. an attach on Taiwan is not the same as an attack on Ukraine; it’s much worse. FTNX will not personally conduct business with China directly but will do business with Taiwan. If China cannot live with the rest of us, if it cannot see that which is right from wrong, if it cannot see the light of logic and rationale, it should simply ‘piss off’ and share its dinner table with those who China sees as worthy of defending. China is aggressive , they are not masters of war, that title goes to the most experienced regimes like the USA, Japan, and Germany. As for the malcontent Putin. enough is enough, the rest of us cannot live in a world full of darkness. Forget about BS politics, Putin is a jealous bastard who simply cannot stand the free lifestyle and standards that a country like Ukraine had attained and was enjoying right on their border; to influence those on the Russian side. I suggest Australia stop exporting iron ore to China and stop Chinese nationals from entering this country, and I also suggest all westerns alliance to curb buying goods from China, and start looking after themselves; until China comes to the correct mind set, to make a statement that is not supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. USA, Alaska, Mexico and Canada should also create a ’special military’ alliance to show China and Russia that the combined land area of the USA alliance is much bigger than Russia and China combined; (more bombs needed) to also show that a country with 1.40 billion people, like China; could vanish from the world census if China attacks Taiwan and continues with its BS stand with Russia. China has much more to lose if this war in Ukraine escalates. As if China wants to be supportive of a cretin like Putin. China want access to cheap oil, that is why it is acting the way it is. So much for climate change? In fact, If China continues to service support of this ‘dumb’ war, orchestrated by a dumb Putin, history will show that China just like Putin had miscalculated their standing with Russia. China may one day be eyeing off Russia resources; after all, Putin has showed the world on just how useless his military forces are. A big kick in the arse for China is needed and Russia should be shown the might of the USA war machine of which a glimpse has been served in assisting Ukraine . USA will not fire a nuclear weapon FIRST, then it stands to reason; China with so much to lose won’t either. Nuclear bombs going off in China would create more damage and kill much more people than an attack on USA. The numbers don’t lie. With USA having over 4000 nuclear weapons ( Russia has 6000 poorly maintained bombs nearing it expiry date) , each able to deliver 100 Kilotons thermo warheads ( or more) irradiating and instantly destroying everything within a 1.2 kilometre radius, means ten bombs landing in ten major cities in China could kill up to 400 million people . Ten bombs only! Xi needs to pull its head in and forget about acting tough to allow diplomacy and common sense to prevail. This leaves the small man Putin, with a economically poor country, with a smaller population and a lot less to lose, to consider using such weapons–dragging China into a war it does not want; it does not want because China unlike Russia has improved his economy at the expense of people delivered with great efforts; it does not readily want to destroy. China does not want to attach itself with Russia, but if it is able to agitate the USA, in doing so, it will, at every opportunity available. China is what we call a ‘shit stirrer.’ Putin is what we call a liability. We need to get rid of the liability, not the shit stirrer, before a peaceful world can once more be entertained. War costs money to initiate as does peace to maintain. PutIn has lost the war, now he is destroying buildings in Ukraine and killing people at random, because building cant fight back. He is threatening to stop gas supplies to Europe, if they don’t pay with Roubles is the latest pop fart. What is the USA and NATO waiting for-All those opinions, political comments and BS media stories; too much talking, and not enough action is apparent, while the Russian bombs keep on coming. “Are those not defending the auspices of a thriving Democracy from being destroyed, complicit in its destruction. Is not the person keeping watch for the burglar , just as guilty as the person doing the act ?” The rule of law states that nobody is above the law. Putin ( or is it Cretin) and Xi don’t like such laws and prefer instead that people are not above the law, only leaders have that privilege.They call this the ‘new order.’ I call it a lost cause.
INFLATION AND TRADE EXCUSES
19 April 2020
In Australia prices for imported consumer goods “have gone through the roof.” Many other countries are also facing the similar issue as the cost of living ( and dying ) rise. Everyone is citing the fact that there is a shortage of workers and that freight and carriage cos have increased 3 or 4 fold, which is true . What else is true is that many retailer including supermarkets do have products on the shelves while ripping off consumers by using such excuses on why good have risen so sharply in the last 4 months. The maths imply as much. if a container is loaded with 40,000 bottles of lets say wine, costing lets say 4.00 per bottle to buy (at FCA) and the usual $2500 carriage rate is now lets say 10,000 dollars or more. Then if an an extra 25 or 30 cent is added to cover increase in freight cost; how does this added expense confer the idea that a wine costing $12.00 4 months ago, to buy at retail is now $22.00 per bottle ‘because freight costs have increased.’ As for delivery to and from a producer in one state to another covering a distances of 600 miles, same aspect is apparent. 40,000 bottles of wine , even if an added 1.00 per bottle is applied to the delivery such goods locally; that’s and extra 40,000 dollars . I don’t know of any truck that would need an extra 40,000 dollars of fuel to travel a distance of 600 Miles? Everyone is using the ‘cost of freight’ excuse , some make the claim legitimately; many however are simply taking advantage of consumer ignorance on the matter- even the media. PCT must assess the cost of goods and genuinely serve quotation based on facts; and not on media reports that the cost of living has increased ‘because carriage’ rates have dramatically increased. Even VLBC carriage rates have increased dramatically because the cost of fuel have increased. If a VLBC carries 100,000 MT of product, just adding 1.00 to the carriage rate , will serve an added 100,000 dollars of fuel. Really? Consumers are being ripped off. First came Covid and then the war in Ukraine. Now such rises is to do with with fuel costs and increase in carriage rates, and nobody is challenging these claims. The prices we now find on supermarket shelves were unheard of 4 or 5 months ago.The irony here is the fact that my local supermarket sells produce some of which came form farms - just down the road.
1 April 2022
FTNX will now ONLY conduct business with also NATO countries (especially Poland) and all ‘states’ bearing a real and active democratic system ( practiced) where the rule of law reigns supreme. This aspect rules Russia out , even though Russia is a federal ‘democratic’ government by name only Only a fool would think Russia is actually a ‘real’ democracy. Communism/dictatorship regimes like China are destroyers of peace, always have been. FTNX will not trade with China at our huge loss on principle, from April 2022, until China clarify their position about the war in Ukraine is formally declared in a positive light. We don’t deal with dishonourable countries. I suggest other like minded countries do the same. FTNX will trade with Taiwan as FTNX recognises its independent status and sovereignty.. China is now buying coking coal and cheap fuel from Russia.This is why China Xi is ‘friends’ with the little man Putin. China then sells cheap steel and other products to the west, of the back of human right abuses and very low wages .This is how China makes money .The west loses its manufacturing base becoming more and more dependent on inferior Chinese made products. China agrees with Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. China has no honour. China is what we call “ a scab.” in all things being equal the west should immediately agree not to buy steel and other metals from China until some kind of action becomes apparent , where China has shown its true face. It has clarified its intent albeit in ‘fading light.’ Adding to this, the piss ant economy and burden of the Solomon Island sells its soul for a a whiff of Chinese money. What has the Solomons islands leader created? They have just becomes a prime nuclear target. If war broke out between China and USA, Solomon islands would be hit first. I wonder what kickbacks were gained in securing such a deal? Like I have stated before China is an opportunist , unlike the government in Australia who have a pessimistic view about “opportunity and big business.” Up to a decade ago , ‘tall poppy syndrome” was still evident down under.
CHINA’S WEAK BOND WITH RUSSIA
22 April 2022
MasterCard and Visa have suspended operations in Russia due to USA imposed sanctions, accordingly Russia has crawled to its “ most important strategic partner” (MISP) to assist. China’s largest payment processor, ‘UnionPay’ has refused to deal with banks in Russia cutting them them off a alternative payment processing arrangement, leaving Russia’ biggest bank Sberbank without a global payment processing partner. Wow! it seems China did not want to contaminate its financial system with Roubles. It seems that China knows “which side of the bread is buttered.” The meaning of MISP has become clearer. ‘ Give me all the cheap fuel you have , we’ll assist you by purchasing such cheap fuel.” China does not want Russia to get too close - just close enough so that the crude oil can flow unabated, and thats it. UnionPay stated that it cannot offer such services to Russia because they fear western sanctions. It seems that Chinese bank are allowed to make their own decisions- or put it another way, President Xi has not forced UnionPay to offer such a service to its ‘MISP.’ China will not allow its country or culture to become infested with a parasite , murderer, thief and liar like Putin. I would even be prepared to state that China is closer to the West (USA), than it is with Russia. Why ? Even enemies can learn to respect each others presence- peacefully. “ I don’t have to like you, but I don’t have to hate you either.” China has show its true face, when it comes to going into bed with Putin which means that China is prepared to ‘act the tough guy’ - but only up to a point.
CLIMATE CHANGE NONSENSE IS BACK
23 April 2022 ; Excerpt: The Theory of Perfect Design (TTOPD): D.G.Papa
You cant argue with the facts. In 1991, directly due to Mt Pinatubo volcano explosion a real ‘shift’ in climate on Earth did occur and yet ostensibly nobody knew any better; the type of climate shift that has not been repeated in the last 30 years.Mt Pinatubo explodes. It ejected 1 cubic mile of ash and material in the air ( in perspective: about 15 million MT- that’s around 150 VLCC carriers full of crude oil) The blast also ejected millions of tons of Sulphur Dioxide, ash and gases as well. The effect was so great that the Earths temperature dropped by 1 degree over 14 months and oceans levels remained stable. This one action tells us that even when millions of tons of emissions from industry and the burning of oil from the recent gulf war Earth was able to ‘repair’ itself. Lets go back to further to add more to existing emissions at that period in time to the volcanic eruption of Mt St Helens in 1980. The explosion caused 520 Million tons of ash to darken parts of the United States of America within 3 days. The emission circled the Earth within 15 days. Mount St Helen released over 24 Megatons of thermal energy which is equal to around 1600 Hiroshima Size Nuclear Bombs (1600 HSNB Units). The particles produced by all these events (and the two nuclear bombs which ended WW II) are still circling the planet which brings me to further question the accuracy of those ‘pictures’ we have seen from space showing human instigated emissions.etc.etc. In a ten year period , Earth had sustained more emissions than what humans had created in the last 50 years - and we are still standing. What’s wrong with current climate change rhetoric? It does not make sense. Earth was able to ‘repair’ itself? Humans survived with no overall ill effect. So what happened to the emissions such devastating eruptions caused? It seems that Earth can bear such emissions. Earth has an inherited sophisticated design feature to handle such emissions. We also stated 7 years ago that the auspices of War will soon be upon us . How much of a set back has the Ukrainian war caused for countries trying to reduce carbon emissions? We’ve seen a great number of emissions from this one war. It seems we have all returned to square one at a time when climate change has become a critical global threat - and we are still arguing. I think a new law should be passed called the “science law.” Anyone making claims about pending climate change without solid proof, should suffer consequences. When this war ends, more excuses about high export prices will emanate and the culprit will be ‘Climate change nonsense and the rhetoric therein.’
SUPPLY CHAIN STILL PROBLEMATIC
28 April 2022
With the Ukraine war causing insurance premiums into deep space; a shortage of ships, and the SARS-COV pandemic closing ports once more in China, the international supply chain is in a chaotic mess. Add to all this drama, a drugged up (His sickly moon faced Putin could be on “Prednisolone”) Putin is once more threatening, to whoever wants to listen– nuclear war. Supply must be planned ahead and end buyers need to search for and secure goods, at least 4 or 5 months earlier, than usual, just to ensure a planned delivery date. Serious end buyers need to secure contract now, if they need raw material to fill the factory floor in September/October. As for export prices, discounts are all limited to very large revolving orders for highly sought after products. Export license/permits have also risen as high as 15% or goods value. Benchmark prices and a premium is now the norm, as the first consideration for the end buyer is to secure hard to get goods. Prices have climbed at the retail level for imported goods ; some seem justified, others do not.The PCT must allow for above matter s to be incorporated into the offer as relevant. and must spend time to close on a contract with end buyers; assisting such as necessary to get the del closed Supplier must be approached with large orders in where higher prices than usual may prevail, before they will drop smaller orders to service a larger more profitable deal. The ITB must strongly suggest that supply and not price is a primary consideration. Seeking and offering a fixed albeit higher price basis ( goods plus premium) is now the preferred application. Forget about trading in Crude oil. U/LSD2, AGO and even Ron 95 rated Gasoline are the preferred petroleum product that still can be effectively sourced.